Hits & Misses vs Hits & Niches

Have you read Chris Anderson's Long Tail blog or his book, The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More? It's a real eye-opener. Do yourself a favor and go to Amazon or wherever and get a copy, because in it he writes at length about the changing face of the entertainment industries.

Here's the Long Tail concept in a nutshell:

For decades, we lived in a scarcity economy. We got introduced to new books, music and films via retail outlets, radio, TV and print publications. But all of these avenues of exposure had physical limitations. There was only so much shelf space, air time and editorial pages to fill. So, in order to appeal to the widest audience and turn a profit, only those things that were determined to be the most popular were stocked or covered.

This lead to a cultural mentality that a book, band or movie was either a big hit or a giant dud. There was little ground in between the two extremes of popularity. You were either part of the system ... or an outsider.

Then came online retailers such as Amazon and Netflix, which were not constrained by the physical space limitations of traditional sellers. For example, the average Borders bookstore carries about 100,000 titles, while Amazon offers nearly 4 million book titles. The average Blockbuster carries about 3,000 DVDs, while Netflix offers close to 60,000.

And guess what? About 25% of the total revenues on Amazon and Netflix come from products not available in retail stores. Yes, from titles outside the "hit list." Anderson's overwhelming research concludes that, when given unlimited choice (along with the ability to filter through the choices), people will stray from the hits and spend a considerable amount of money on non-mainstream products.

Unfortunately, the old scarcity business model is so ingrained in our culture, it has lead to many unfounded beliefs, such as:

• If it isn't a hit, it's a miss
  
  
• The only success is mass success
  
  
• "Independent" = "They couldn't get a deal"
  
  
• "Self-published" = bad
  
  
• Low-selling = low-quality
  
  
• If it were good, it would be popular

Luckily, a growing number of creative entrepreneurs are figuring out ways to make the most of this new "abundance economy" -- where practically everything is available to the public, where the cream rises to the top based on what consumers actually want, and where you can make an impact (and a living) without ever ranking on the New York Tines bestseller list.

So, what kind of world do you want to live in? One of scarcity, hits and misses? Or one of abundance, hits and niches?

The choice is ultimately up to you.

-Bob

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